NFFC Target Taiwo Awoniyi — A Closer Look.
Taiwo Awoniyi has been heavily linked with a move to Nottingham Forest in this summer transfer window, and the club look set to break their record transfer fee by meeting the Union Berlin strikers’ £17.5m release clause. I take a closer look.
How does he fit into the Union Berlin system?
Much like Forest, Union Berlin look to play slight variations of the 3–5–2 in possession and turn into a solid 5–3–2/5–4–1 out of possession. Generally, Taiwo has always been left furthest up the field in a central position should his strike partner drop back into midfield.
Their impressive 5th place finish in the Bundesliga last term was built on a foundation of defensive solidity. They had the 2nd lowest xG Against in the league (41.6) and went on to concede just 40 goals (3rd lowest).
As a side they are very happy to sit in a mid to low block, giving up possession and hitting opponents with direct transition. They ranked just 15th for total possession, had the 3rd highest PPDA (Passes Allowed per Defensive Action) and just two sides pressured less in the attacking third. Berlin also ranked 4th for long passes attempted, coming in at 24.5% (30 yards +). Forest could well look to attack the Premier League with a very similar philosophy next season.
Awoniyi is very much the focal point of many of these long passes in a quick transition, trying to make the most of his pace, power, and athleticism. Only two strikers who have played more than 800 minutes have received more long passes per 90 than him.
Taiwo has started in every game bar one that he has been available for (29 in total) missing three fixtures of the regular season due to an International call up.
A Deeper Dive Into the Numbers
When we look at the style of football Union Berlin play, I can’t help but be impressed with the good attacking numbers the striker has been able to produce. The fact that Forest’s style of play could well be similar next season you can see why he may be thought of as a good fit.
He ranked in the top 5 for all key goalscoring metrics in last seasons Bundesliga. Only Haaland, Lewandowski and Schick finished above him for non-penalty xG/90. Just Haaland and Andre Silva for xG per Shot and only Haaland, Schick and Nkuku for goal conversion. That’s £300m+ worth of talent between those three.
Despite receiving a below average number of passes for a Centre Forward in the Bundesliga, you can see below he makes the most out of the ball time that he does see. Combination of his good movement, pace and directness gets him consistently into good scoring positions.
Below is a data viz to show his career finishing performance against xG. He does seem like a player who can get his goals in bursts and then have slightly quiet periods. However, he is still only 24 years old and there is time for the consistency to come. His hot spell last season saw him net 9 times in 14 games; a replication of that spell could well see us on our way to Premier League survival. I wouldn’t be going as far as to say he is an extremely good finisher just yet however, there should be caution there.
The section of the data viz below is what is most pleasing with Taiwo. His 10-game average xG per game tracks nicely between 0.25 and 0.5. Watching his movement, pace, and ability to create a chance for himself, I’m confident that if he comes close to converting this in the EPL then even some average finishing will see him get goals.
Being part of a side that does give up a lot of possession you’d be right to ask the question of his defensive output compared to all other forwards in the league.
I do though think that be explained by the number of times he is asked to stay central, preparing himself for a transition. In these situations, we generally see his forward partner look to help out the midfield. It’s my opinion that by no means does he not look willing or incapable of being affective from a defensive standpoint. (see below)
Comparison to Keinan Davis
Here is a snapshot of Awoniyi v Davis using the Wyscout comparison tool.
There are a few key differences between the two players. One of the main differences is Taiwo’s ability to get himself into goal scoring positions. His ability to play off the shoulder of the defender and run in behind helps him with this, along with having the ability to take shots comfortably with both feet.
Notice the very first section of the clip below. I think the majority of the time Keinan Davis will look to come and get the ball into feet; this would lead to him likely dribbling past a player before playing a pass onto a teammate.
Here we see Awoniyi use his great movement and he is therefore able to get a shot away.
The other major difference is in their hold-up play. Keinan Davis is one of the best I’ve ever seen in this aspect. I think his ability to hold onto the ball and bring others into play would be a real asset in the Premier League, especially in matches when we need to try and quickly relieve a little pressure.
Taiwo Awoniyi is a strong boy but there are certain times where he could use that strength better to protect the ball. This is something he can continue to learn; the physical aspects are there for him to do so. Examples of that below:
Another key difference is the areas of the pitch both players were asked to play from last season. You can see that Taiwo operated centrally and drifted both left and right. Keinan Davis operated very much from the left in the split striker role he played alongside Brennan Johnson. I do think this slightly hindered Keinan’s chances to get into better goalscoring positions and it’ll be interesting if Cooper asks Awoniyi to play a similar role as that may affect his xG output. It would perhaps help him to be able to run the channels rather than play with his back to goal, as we saw Sam Surridge do well for us when called upon last term.
Conclusion
All in all I think he’d be a signing that would make a whole lot of sense. Good recruitment teams find players to fit perfectly into a system and given Union Berlin played in a style I very much expect Forest will be looking to play in the Premier League, it gives the player every chance to replicate last season’s success.
He’s a player that will likely be signed instead of Keinan Davis but I actually think he’d be the replacement for Brennan Johnson if we were unable to tie the Welsh Wonderkid down. I certainly think a front two of Keinan and Taiwo could cause serious problems.
Thanks for reading,
Chris Kearney — @AnalyticsForest
