Chris Wood NFFC | Some Ramblings

I sat on the fence a little when we were first linked with a move for Chris Wood…

Now, to be clear, this is not me saying I think Chris Wood is a bad footballer. I actually think he was tragically underrated during the majority of his time at Burnley. Hitting a double figure goal tally in 4 consecutive seasons in the Premier League isn’t to be sniffed at whoever you play for, especially if that side is more often than not fighting relegation.

At Burnley…

This radar shows what Chris Wood was all about with Burnley.
He was effective.

Competed very well aerially, strong in a duel, tested the keeper more often than not, got into good goalscoring positions inside the box.

The main reason Wood was able to be so effective at Burnley was the fact that they played perfectly to his strengths.

During the 20/21 season Burnley ranked 8th for crosses over the season, averaging 14.8 per game, they played the most long balls in the league by some distance; which are both impressive considering their 40% season possession average and only West Brom had a lower passes per minute rate.

The above slides shows a good example of how direct Burnley were into Wood. Wood positioned centrally between the width of the box, he receives it well, wriggles clear of Coady and finishes well.

Burnley wanted him central as much as possible, between the width of the box, especially when they were able to get the ball wide and deliver crosses, 16 of Chris’ last 36 for Burnley all came via his head.

Fitting Into The Current System?

This is how we currently set up.

Chris Wood coming in to replace the injured Taiwo Awoniyi more likely than not.

Taiwo and Brennan Johnson have been used in split striker roles, neither of them consistently taking up a central space, both helping out defensively wide to track opposition full backs. This has meant Morgan Gibbs-White, our most creative player, has been able to play centrally, sometimes pressing between the two strikers and also dropping in and linking the play finding two forwards in-front of him running between the half spaces(edge of the 6 yard box and penalty box).

Setting up this way really does get the best out of Brennan and Morgan. When we counter and play in transition, Morgan is central where he can really hurt teams and not playing Brennan as an out and out winger where he’d have even more defensive responsibility, means he can be ready to initiate his pace in behind. i.e. the goals vs Leicester.

While I don’t think this gets the best out of Awoniyi, he’s still been able to keep up his impressive xG numbers while playing much wider than he did with Union Berlin.

Below are Awoniyi’s heat maps against Chelsea and Man Utd.

Can Chris Wood be a like for like swap?

In short, no.
A) He doesn’t possess the powerful running of Taiwo to help play in transition from deep. (see above)
B) To get the best out of him you need him between the width of the box.

The Solution..

Move to a 433: The obvious tweak we may now make moving forward would be to play MGW off the left, meaning we can keep Chris Wood central and not have to burden him with defensive responsibility as much. The obvious worry here is that it takes Gibbs-White away from the central areas of the pitch where he has looked so good recently.

4231: Again a risk. Moving away from our 3 man midfield which has started to make us much more solid and has been a major factor in us climbing the league wouldn’t be something I think Steve is looking to do. In a couple of months when Danilo has settled and it looks like he could really dominate the middle of the park with his dynamism, then that perhaps becomes more of an option.

Conclusion..

Forest’s style of play isn’t that of what Burnley’s was when they were getting the best out of Chris Wood. Neither was Newcastle’s. Although we have to go direct at times, we aren’t heavy crosses and we’ve settled into a good transitional side. There will have been other options out there that would suit what we’re currently doing much better.

That being said, this is January, it’s not easy. Chris Wood is a good striker and I’m sure a solid pro to have in the dressing room. He isn’t an unknown quantity. Steve Cooper will be fully aware of his qualities and his shortcomings, and I’m sure he must have signed off on the deal.
Steve and his backroom staff have done enough to get our support.

Loan with an obligation (if triggers met)…It’s difficult to have a strong opinion on the £15m fee without knowing the full details of the ‘triggers’.
It feels like money that could be spent much wiser in 6 months time.
I just hope there are performance related triggers in the deal which revolve the player, rather than simply Forest beating the drop.

Decent finish this, albeit against poor opposition.

Thanks for reading.